手法を比較

	Environmental Scanning for Foresight	Emerging Issues Analysis
分野	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	2003	2009
提唱者	Joseph Voros (generic foresight process framework); Millennium Project / Futures Research Methodology	Graham T. T. Molitor; Hawai'i School / Millennium Project
種類	Input-stage scanning pipeline for the generic foresight process	Early-detection pipeline for issues on the S-curve of public attention
原典	Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10-21.	Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (Eds.). (2009). Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0. The Millennium Project. ISBN: 9780981894119
別名	Foresight Environmental Scanning, Strategic Environmental Scanning, Foresight Input Scanning, Voros Input-Stage Scanning	Emerging Issue Analysis, EIA, Issues Emergence Analysis, Weak Signal Scanning
関連	4	3
概要	Environmental scanning for foresight is the systematic surveillance of an organization's external environment to collect, filter, and interpret the signals of change that feed a structured foresight process. In Joseph Voros's 2003 generic foresight process framework, scanning is the input stage — the activity that gathers the raw material on which all subsequent analysis depends — and the quality of that input bounds the quality of everything that follows. The method is deliberately broad and continuous: it casts a wide net across many channels, sifts the resulting flood for what is relevant, and interprets the survivors into emerging trends and issues. As codified in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology, environmental scanning is the foundational discipline of strategic foresight, valued because foresight that rests on a narrow or stale view of the environment is foresight built on sand, however sophisticated the downstream methods.	Emerging Issues Analysis (EIA) is a horizon-scanning method, associated with Graham Molitor and the Hawai'i School and codified in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology, for detecting issues at the earliest, weakest-signal stage — long before they register as trends or reach public consciousness. Its organizing idea is that issues, like technologies, follow an S-curve of public attention: they begin in obscure, marginal sources, accelerate as advocates and specialists pick them up, and only later become widely recognized trends and finally mainstream concerns. The strategic value of catching an issue on the flat, early part of that curve is enormous, because that is when there is the most time and the most room to respond. EIA therefore deliberately scans the fringe — specialist literature, activist publications, patents, subcultures, marginal voices — to spot the small clouds on the horizon and position them on the issue lifecycle.