手法を比較
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| 決定論的ミクロシミュレーション× | システムダイナミクス× | |
|---|---|---|
| 分野 | シミュレーション | シミュレーション |
| 系統 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 提唱年≠ | 1957 | 1961 |
| 提唱者≠ | Guy H. Orcutt | Jay W. Forrester |
| 種類≠ | Individual-level deterministic rule application | Continuous simulation / feedback modelling |
| 原典≠ | Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123. DOI ↗ | Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159 |
| 別名 | Arithmetic Microsimulation, Static Tax-Benefit Microsimulation, Deterministic Policy Simulation, Rule-based Microsimulation | stock-flow modelling, Sistem Dinamiği (Stock-Flow Modelleme), SD modelling, feedback simulation |
| 関連≠ | 5 | 3 |
| 概要≠ | Deterministic Microsimulation applies a fixed set of policy rules or behavioral equations to each individual or household record in a microdata file, computing exact outcomes without any random sampling. It is the standard engine behind tax-benefit calculators and demographic projection models used by governments worldwide. | System dynamics is a continuous simulation method, developed by Jay W. Forrester at MIT in 1961, that represents a complex system through stocks (accumulations), flows (rates of change), and feedback loops. By expressing these relationships as coupled ordinary differential equations, it reproduces how policies, delays, and nonlinear feedbacks drive system behaviour over time — making it a cornerstone tool in policy analysis, organisational modelling, and sustainability research. |
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