手法を比較

	決定論的ミクロシミュレーション	確率的ミクロシミュレーション
分野	シミュレーション	シミュレーション
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1957	1957
提唱者	Guy H. Orcutt	Guy H. Orcutt
種類	Individual-level deterministic rule application	Stochastic individual-level simulation
原典	Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123.	Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123.
別名	Arithmetic Microsimulation, Static Tax-Benefit Microsimulation, Deterministic Policy Simulation, Rule-based Microsimulation	Probabilistic Microsimulation, Monte Carlo Microsimulation, Stochastic Micro-simulation, SMSM
関連	5	6
概要	Deterministic Microsimulation applies a fixed set of policy rules or behavioral equations to each individual or household record in a microdata file, computing exact outcomes without any random sampling. It is the standard engine behind tax-benefit calculators and demographic projection models used by governments worldwide.	Stochastic Microsimulation tracks a large population of individual units — people, households, or firms — through time by applying random draws from empirically estimated probability distributions at each transition event. Unlike deterministic counterparts, every state change is decided by chance, preserving realistic heterogeneity and allowing rigorous uncertainty quantification across multiple simulation runs.