手法を比較

	Health Economicsにおける意思決定分析モデリング	健康経済学におけるマルコフ連鎖モデル
分野	医療経済学	医療経済学
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1975	1983
提唱者	Pauker & Kassirer (medical decision analysis, Massachusetts General Hospital)	Beck & Pauker (medical decision analysis, Massachusetts General Hospital)
種類	Method	Method
原典	Pauker, S. G., & Kassirer, J. P. (1975). Therapeutic Decision Making: A Cost-Benefit Analysis. New England Journal of Medicine, 293(5), 229-234.	Beck, J. R., & Pauker, S. G. (1983). The Markov Process in Medical Prognosis. Medical Decision Making, 3(4), 419-458.
別名	decision analysis, decision tree, decision model, health economic model	Markov model, state transition model, cohort simulation
関連	5	5
概要	Decision analytic modeling is a systematic framework for comparing health interventions by integrating evidence on probabilities, outcomes, costs, and patient preferences into a quantitative model. Developed by Pauker and Kassirer in 1975, decision analysis structures clinical uncertainty and economic trade-offs, enabling transparent comparison of treatment options and identification of optimal strategies. Used in health technology assessment, clinical practice guideline development, and resource allocation decisions.	A Markov model is a decision-analytic tool that simulates disease progression through defined health states over time, calculating cumulative costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) to enable cost-effectiveness analysis. Developed by Beck and Pauker in 1983, Markov models are now the standard framework for projecting long-term outcomes of health interventions, especially chronic diseases where patients transition between clinical states (treatment response, disease progression, remission, death). Used by health technology assessment bodies and pharmaceutical companies to predict intervention value beyond trial duration.