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	Critical Junctures Analysis	Conjunctural History
分野	Historical Institutionalism	Economic History
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1991	1944
提唱者	Ruth Berins Collier and David Collier	Ernest Labrousse
種類	causal-framework	analytical-framework
原典	Collier, R. B., & Collier, D. (1991). Shaping the Political Arena: Critical Junctures, the Labor Movement, and Regime Dynamics in Latin America. Princeton University Press. ISBN: 9780691078304	Labrousse, E. (1944). La crise de l'economie francaise a la fin de l'Ancien Regime et au debut de la Revolution. Presses Universitaires de France. ISBN: 9782130436201
別名	Critical juncture framework, Formative-moment analysis, Branch-point analysis, Junctures-and-legacies approach	Conjoncture analysis, Cyclical economic history, Price-history of cycles, Labroussian conjunctural method
関連	3	3
概要	Critical junctures analysis explains long-run institutional divergence by locating brief, formative periods in which the structural constraints on action loosen and actors' choices can set societies onto durable, contrasting trajectories. Developed most influentially by Ruth Berins Collier and David Collier in their study of labor incorporation in Latin America, the framework couples a moment of heightened contingency, the critical juncture, with the lasting legacy it produces and the reactive sequences that reproduce that legacy over time. The approach is comparative by design: it examines several cases sharing similar antecedent conditions, shows how different choices at the juncture generated different legacies, and traces how each legacy was carried forward through subsequent reactions and counter-reactions. By distinguishing the rare windows when agency is decisive from the long stretches when structures dominate, critical-junctures analysis reconciles contingency with durable patterning and supplies the formative moment that path-dependence accounts require.	Conjunctural history studies the medium-term cyclical movements, the conjoncture, that occupy the middle layer of Braudel's tripartite time scheme, between the near-immobile longue duree and the rapid surface of events. Pioneered by Ernest Labrousse in his studies of eighteenth-century French prices, the method reconstructs decade-scale fluctuations in prices, wages, harvests, and production, then asks how these economic rhythms reverberate through society and politics. Labrousse showed that interlocking cycles of grain prices and agricultural revenue could converge into acute crises that strained the social order, contributing to the conditions for revolution. The conjoncture is thus neither the slow structure nor the fleeting event but the oscillating economic mood of a period. By charting these waves with quantitative series and linking their peaks and troughs to social tension, popular unrest, and political rupture, conjunctural history offers a bridge between economic measurement and the explanation of historical change.