手法を比較

	Correlates of War Analysis	Power Transition Analysis
分野	International Relations	International Relations
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	1972	1980
提唱者	J. David Singer & Melvin Small (Correlates of War project)	A. F. K. Organski & Jacek Kugler
種類	Systematic coding and quantitative analysis of war and national capabilities	Theory-driven observational analysis of war between rising and dominant powers
原典	Singer, J. D., Bremer, S., & Stuckey, J. (1972). Capability distribution, uncertainty, and major power war, 1820–1965. In B. Russett (Ed.), Peace, War, and Numbers (pp. 19–48). Beverly Hills: Sage.	Organski, A. F. K., & Kugler, J. (1980). The War Ledger. University of Chicago Press.
別名	COW Analysis, Correlates of War Project Data, National Material Capabilities Analysis, Composite Index of National Capability Analysis	Power Transition Theory Analysis, Power Parity and War Analysis, Hegemonic Transition Analysis, Overtaking and War Analysis
関連	3	3
概要	Correlates of War (COW) analysis is the systematic, data-driven study of interstate and intrastate war pioneered by J. David Singer and Melvin Small. The COW project assembled standardized, transparently coded datasets on the membership of the state system, the wars it has fought, and the material capabilities, alliances, and disputes of its members since 1816. Singer, Bremer, and Stuckey's (1972) study of capability distribution and major-power war exemplifies the approach: combine these building blocks into state-year and dyad-year datasets and analyze, statistically, what conditions correlate with the onset of war.	Power transition analysis examines when and why war breaks out between a dominant state and a rising challenger as their relative power converges. Originating in A. F. K. Organski and Jacek Kugler's The War Ledger (1980), it holds that the international system is hierarchical and most dangerous not at moments of clear preponderance but when a dissatisfied rising power approaches parity with the dominant state — and it operationalizes this by tracking relative national capabilities over time and relating overtaking to the onset of major war.