手法を比較

	コーホート要因法人口予測	移動と移住の放射モデル
分野	人口学	空間分析
系統	Process / pipeline	Regression model
提唱年	2001	2012
提唱者	Preston, Heuveline & Guillot	Filippo Simini et al.
種類	Demographic projection pipeline	Parameter-free spatial interaction model
原典	Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 978-1-557-86451-2	Simini, F., González, M. C., Maritan, A., & Barabási, A.-L. (2012). A universal model for mobility and migration patterns. Nature, 484, 96–100.
別名	Cohort-Component Method, Component Method of Population Projection, Age-Sex-Specific Population Projection, Kohort-Bileşen Projeksiyonu	Radiation Law of Human Mobility, Parameter-free Mobility Model, Simini Radiation Model, Radyasyon Modeli
関連	3	3
概要	Cohort-Component Projection is the standard demographic method for forecasting future population size and age-sex structure by explicitly tracking births, deaths, and migration for each age-sex cohort across discrete time steps. Systematically formalized in the textbook literature by Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (2001), the method builds on foundational actuarial and demographic work dating to the early twentieth century and remains the workhorse technique used by national statistical offices and international organizations worldwide.	The Radiation Model, introduced by Simini et al. in 2012, is a parameter-free model for predicting human mobility and migration flows between geographic locations. Drawing an analogy from radiation physics, it predicts trip volumes based solely on population sizes at origin and destination, and the intervening population within the circle connecting them. It has been widely applied to commuting flows, migration, and epidemic spreading.