手法を比較

	Coale-Trussell Model	Lee-Carterモデル
分野	人口学	人口学
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	1974	1992
提唱者	Ansley J. Coale & T. James Trussell	Ronald Lee & Lawrence Carter
種類	Parametric model of marital fertility by age	Stochastic mortality forecasting model
原典	Coale, A. J., & Trussell, T. J. (1974). Model fertility schedules: variations in the age structure of childbearing in human populations. Population Index, 40(2), 185–258.	Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671.
別名	Coale-Trussell Fertility Model, M-m Fertility Model, Model Marital Fertility Schedule, Coale-Trussell Doğurganlık Modeli	LC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli
関連	4	2
概要	The Coale-Trussell model is a two-parameter parametric description of the age pattern of marital fertility, introduced by Ansley Coale and James Trussell in 1974. It expresses observed age-specific marital fertility as a standard natural-fertility schedule scaled by an overall level parameter M and modulated by an age-increasing function of deliberate birth-control intensity, summarized by a single control parameter m.	The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections.