手法を比較

	Civil War Onset Analysis	State Capacity Measurement
分野	International Relations	International Relations
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	2003	2010
提唱者	Civil-war research program (e.g., James Fearon & David Laitin; Collier & Hoeffler)	State-capacity literature; measurement synthesis by Cullen Hendrix
種類	Observational country-year analysis of civil-war onset	Measurement of the state's ability to penetrate, extract, and enforce
原典	Fearon, J. D., & Laitin, D. D. (2003). Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war. American Political Science Review, 97(1), 75–90.	Hendrix, C. S. (2010). Measuring state capacity: Theoretical and empirical implications for the study of civil conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 47(3), 273–285.
別名	Civil Conflict Onset Analysis, Greed vs. Grievance Analysis, Insurgency Onset Analysis, Determinants of Civil War	Measuring State Capacity, State Strength Measurement, Bureaucratic and Fiscal Capacity Measures, State Capacity Indicators
関連	3	3
概要	Civil war onset analysis is the observational study of why internal armed conflict begins in some countries and years but not others. Organized as country-year data with a binary onset outcome, it models the probability of onset against structural, economic, and political conditions. Fearon and Laitin's (2003) influential analysis argued that civil war is best understood as insurgency, and that the conditions favoring insurgency — weak states, poverty, rough terrain, large populations — predict onset far better than ethnic or religious diversity, reframing the long 'greed versus grievance' debate.	State capacity measurement is the effort to quantify how able a state is to do the things states do — raise revenue, administer territory, and enforce its will — a variable central to explaining civil conflict, development, and governance. Because capacity is abstract, researchers operationalize it through observable indicators of fiscal, bureaucratic, and coercive strength. Hendrix (2010) systematically compared fifteen common operationalizations, using factor analysis to show that they reduce to a few underlying dimensions, and clarified which measures best capture the capacity relevant to conflict.