手法を比較

	因果影響分析	中断時系列分析（Interrupted Time Series, ITS）
分野	因果推論	因果推論
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	2015	2002
提唱者	Kay H. Brodersen, Fabian Gallusser, Jim Koehler, Nicolas Remy, Steven L. Scott (Google)	Wagner, Soumerai, Zhang & Ross-Degnan (segmented regression); Bernal, Cummins & Gasparrini (tutorial)
種類	Bayesian causal inference / counterfactual forecasting	Quasi-experimental segmented regression
原典	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.	Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355.
別名	CausalImpact, BSTS causal inference, Bayesian causal impact, counterfactual time-series analysis	ITS analysis, segmented regression of time series, Kesintili Zaman Serisi (ITS) Analizi
関連	5	5
概要	Causal Impact Analysis, introduced by Brodersen et al. (2015) at Google, uses Bayesian structural time-series models to estimate what would have happened to an outcome had an intervention never occurred. By constructing a probabilistic counterfactual from pre-treatment data and control covariates, it quantifies point-in-time and cumulative treatment effects with full posterior uncertainty intervals.	Interrupted Time Series analysis is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the effect of a single, well-dated intervention by comparing the trajectory of an outcome before and after it occurs. Formalised as segmented regression by Wagner and colleagues (2002) and popularised as a public-health evaluation tutorial by Bernal, Cummins and Gasparrini (2017), it separates the intervention's impact into a change in level and a change in slope.