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	Brass Growth Balance Method	安定人口理論
分野	人口学	人口学
系統	Process / pipeline	Regression model
提唱年	1975	1972
提唱者	William Brass	Alfred J. Lotka; Ansley Coale
種類	Death distribution method for estimating the completeness of death registration	Mathematical demographic model
原典	Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 9781557864512	Coale, A. J. (1972). The Growth and Structure of Human Populations: A Mathematical Investigation. Princeton University Press. ISBN: 978-0-691-09357-4
別名	Brass growth balance equation, GBM, Death registration completeness estimation, Brass Büyüme Dengesi Yöntemi	Lotka-Coale Stable Population Model, Stable Age Distribution Theory, Stationary Population Theory, Kararlı Nüfus Teorisi
関連	4	2
概要	The Brass growth balance method estimates how complete a country's death registration is when vital statistics are incomplete but a census age distribution exists. Developed by William Brass in 1975, it rests on a simple demographic accounting identity applied above every age: in a stable population the rate at which people enter an open-ended age group must equal the population growth rate plus the rate at which they leave it by dying. Plotting the entry rate against the observed death rate above each age yields a straight line whose slope reveals the fraction of deaths actually registered.	Stable Population Theory is a mathematical framework in demography that describes the age structure and growth dynamics of a closed population subject to constant age-specific fertility and mortality schedules over a long period. Foundational work by Alfred J. Lotka established the core integral equation in the early twentieth century, and Ansley Coale's 1972 mathematical synthesis became the definitive theoretical reference, showing that any population exposed to invariant vital rates will converge to a unique stable age distribution growing at a fixed intrinsic rate of natural increase.