手法を比較

	生物蓄積モデル	個体群生存性分析
分野	生態学	生態学
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	2006	1981
提唱者	Frank Gobas	Mark Shaffer
種類	pollutant accumulation dynamics	extinction risk assessment
原典	Arnot, J. A., & Gobas, F. A. (2006). A review of bioaccumulation factor (BAF) and bioconcentration factor (BCF) assessments for organic chemicals in aquatic organisms. Environmental Reviews, 14(4), 257-297.	Shaffer, M. L. (1981). Minimum population sizes for species conservation. BioScience, 31(2), 131-134.
別名	accumulation model, toxicokinetics, persistent organic pollutants, POPs	PVA, extinction risk, minimum viable population, MVP
関連	4	4
概要	Bioaccumulation models predict how chemical contaminants accumulate in organisms from environmental exposure (water, food, sediment). Developed by Gobas and colleagues (2006), these models quantify the kinetics of chemical uptake, metabolism, and clearance. Bioaccumulation factors (BAF) and bioconcentration factors (BCF) measure the ratio of chemical concentration in organisms to concentration in the environment. Understanding bioaccumulation is critical for assessing ecological risk from persistent organic pollutants (POPs), heavy metals, and other contaminants.	Population Viability Analysis (PVA), introduced by Shaffer (1981), estimates the probability that a population will persist over a given time period under specified conditions. PVA combines demographic models (Leslie matrices, IPMs) with stochastic simulation to project population trajectories, quantifying extinction risk. This allows conservation planners to assess whether a population will likely persist, evaluate management scenarios, and estimate the minimum viable population (MVP) size for long-term persistence. PVA is a decision-support tool, not a precise predictor.