手法を比較

	ベイジアンシナリオ分析	確率的シナリオ分析
分野	シミュレーション	シミュレーション
系統	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
提唱年	2000s	1955–1980s
提唱者	Developed iteratively across Bayesian statistics and scenario planning communities; formalized in risk and decision analysis (Aven, Lempert et al., 2000s)	Dantzig, G. B.; Birge, J. R.; and others in stochastic programming tradition
種類	Probabilistic hybrid — Bayesian inference integrated with structured scenario analysis	Probabilistic scenario enumeration and evaluation
原典	Aven, T., & Reniers, G. (2013). How to define and interpret a probability in a risk and safety setting. Safety Science, 51(1), 223–231.	Birge, J. R., Louveaux, F. (2011). Introduction to Stochastic Programming (2nd ed.). Springer. ISBN: 9781461402374
別名	BSA, Bayesian scenario planning, probabilistic scenario analysis, Bayesian-weighted scenario analysis	Probabilistic Scenario Analysis, SSA, Stochastic What-If Analysis, Monte Carlo Scenario Analysis
関連	5	4
概要	Bayesian Scenario Analysis (BSA) combines structured scenario planning with Bayesian probability theory, assigning explicit prior probabilities to alternative futures and updating them as new evidence or expert judgments become available. The result is a probability-weighted distribution of outcomes across scenarios rather than a set of equally-weighted or arbitrarily-weighted futures.	Stochastic Scenario Analysis evaluates a system or decision across multiple explicitly defined scenarios, each assigned a probability of occurrence. Unlike deterministic scenario analysis, it propagates uncertainty through probability distributions and computes expected outcomes, variance, and risk metrics across the scenario space, giving decision-makers a structured view of what could happen and how likely each outcome is.