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	ベイジアン第III相臨床試験	逐次分析（群逐次計画）
分野	疫学	統計学
系統	Process / pipeline	Hypothesis test
提唱年	1990s–2000s (widespread application)	1977
提唱者	Donald A. Berry; David J. Spiegelhalter (formalization in clinical context)	P. C. O'Brien & T. R. Fleming; P. C. Pocock
種類	Confirmatory randomized controlled trial with Bayesian inference	Sequential / adaptive hypothesis test
原典	Spiegelhalter, D. J., Abrams, K. R., & Myles, J. P. (2004). Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-Care Evaluation. Wiley. ISBN: 978-0471499756	O'Brien, P.C. & Fleming, T.R. (1979). A Multiple Testing Procedure for Clinical Trials. Biometrics, 35(3), 549–556.
別名	Bayesian confirmatory trial, Bayesian RCT Phase III, Bayesian pivotal trial, BayesCT	sequential testing, group sequential design, interim analysis, Sıralı Analiz (Sequential Testing / Group Sequential Design)
関連	5	5
概要	A Bayesian Phase III clinical trial is a large-scale, confirmatory randomized controlled trial that uses Bayesian statistical inference rather than conventional frequentist hypothesis testing to evaluate whether an experimental treatment meets pre-defined efficacy and safety thresholds. By combining prior evidence with accumulating trial data, it quantifies the probability that the treatment effect exceeds a clinically meaningful threshold, enabling more transparent decision-making under uncertainty.	Sequential analysis is a framework for conducting hypothesis tests with pre-planned interim looks at accumulating data, allowing a study to stop early for efficacy or futility while controlling the overall Type I error rate. The group sequential approach was formalised by Pocock (1977) and O'Brien and Fleming (1979), and remains the standard for confirmatory clinical trials and rigorous A/B experiments.