手法を比較

	ベイジアン因果影響分析 (Bayesian Causal Impact Analysis)	合成コントロール法（SCM）
分野	因果推論	因果推論
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	2015	2003–2010
提唱者	Brodersen, Gallusser, Koehler, Remy & Scott (Google)	Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal (2003); Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller (2010)
種類	Bayesian causal inference / time series	Quasi-experimental causal inference
原典	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.	Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.
別名	CausalImpact, Bayesian structural time series causal inference, BSTS causal impact, Bayesian intervention analysis	SCM, synthetic control, synth estimator, Abadie-Diamond-Hainmueller method
関連	4	4
概要	Bayesian Causal Impact Analysis uses a Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model to estimate the causal effect of an intervention on a time series outcome. Developed by Brodersen and colleagues at Google in 2015, it builds a probabilistic counterfactual — what the series would have looked like without the intervention — from pre-intervention data and optional control covariates, then compares it with the observed post-intervention values to produce a fully Bayesian posterior over the causal effect.	The Synthetic Control Method estimates the causal effect of a treatment or policy on a single treated unit by constructing a weighted combination of untreated units — the synthetic control — that closely resembles the treated unit before the intervention. The gap between the treated unit and its synthetic counterpart after the intervention is the estimated treatment effect.