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	ベイジアン因果影響分析 (Bayesian Causal Impact Analysis)	因果影響分析
分野	因果推論	因果推論
系統	Regression model	Regression model
提唱年	2015	2015
提唱者	Brodersen, Gallusser, Koehler, Remy & Scott (Google)	Kay H. Brodersen, Fabian Gallusser, Jim Koehler, Nicolas Remy, Steven L. Scott (Google)
種類	Bayesian causal inference / time series	Bayesian causal inference / counterfactual forecasting
原典	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.
別名	CausalImpact, Bayesian structural time series causal inference, BSTS causal impact, Bayesian intervention analysis	CausalImpact, BSTS causal inference, Bayesian causal impact, counterfactual time-series analysis
関連	4	5
概要	Bayesian Causal Impact Analysis uses a Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model to estimate the causal effect of an intervention on a time series outcome. Developed by Brodersen and colleagues at Google in 2015, it builds a probabilistic counterfactual — what the series would have looked like without the intervention — from pre-intervention data and optional control covariates, then compares it with the observed post-intervention values to produce a fully Bayesian posterior over the causal effect.	Causal Impact Analysis, introduced by Brodersen et al. (2015) at Google, uses Bayesian structural time-series models to estimate what would have happened to an outcome had an intervention never occurred. By constructing a probabilistic counterfactual from pre-treatment data and control covariates, it quantifies point-in-time and cumulative treatment effects with full posterior uncertainty intervals.