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| Capture-Recapture for Hidden Crime Populations× | Stima della Popolazione tramite Cattura-Ricattura× | |
|---|---|---|
| Campo≠ | Criminology | Metodologia delle indagini |
| Famiglia≠ | Process / pipeline | Regression model |
| Anno di origine≠ | 1995 | 1978 |
| Ideatore≠ | International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting (modern multi-list synthesis); Sheila Bird & Ruth King (criminal-justice applications) | Otis, Burnham, White & Anderson |
| Tipo≠ | Population-size estimation from overlapping incomplete lists | Probabilistic population size estimator |
| Fonte seminale≠ | Bird, S. M., & King, R. (2018). Multiple systems estimation (or capture-recapture estimation) to inform public policy. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 5, 95–118. DOI ↗ | Otis, D. L., Burnham, K. P., White, G. C., & Anderson, D. R. (1978). Statistical inference from capture data on closed animal populations. Wildlife Monographs, 62, 3–135. link ↗ |
| Alias | Multiple Systems Estimation, Mark-Recapture for Hidden Populations, Dark-Figure Population Estimation, Lincoln-Petersen Crime Estimation | Mark-Recapture, Tag-Recapture, Mark-Release-Recapture, İşaretle-Yeniden Yakala |
| Correlati≠ | 3 | 2 |
| Sintesi≠ | Capture-recapture, known in criminology and public health as multiple systems estimation, infers the size of a hidden population — undocumented homicide victims, trafficking victims, problem drug users, undetected offenders — that no single source counts completely. By examining how much two or more incomplete lists overlap, it estimates how many cases were missed by all of them: the 'dark figure' of crime. Borrowed from wildlife ecology, the method was synthesized for human populations by the International Working Group in 1995 and brought to criminal-justice policy by Bird and King. | Capture-recapture (also known as mark-recapture) is a statistical method for estimating the size of an unknown population by sampling it twice and tracking which individuals appear in both samples. Formally systematized for closed animal populations by Otis, Burnham, White, and Anderson in their landmark 1978 Wildlife Monographs paper, the method extends naturally to human populations, epidemiology, and incomplete administrative records. |
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