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| Stochastic Microsimulation× | Mikroszimuláció× | |
|---|---|---|
| Tudományterület | Szimuláció | Szimuláció |
| Módszercsalád | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| Keletkezés éve | 1957 | 1957 |
| Megalkotó≠ | Guy H. Orcutt | Guy Orcutt (concept, 1957); modern tax-transfer frameworks developed through EUROMOD and related projects |
| Típus≠ | Stochastic individual-level simulation | Policy simulation / computational social science |
| Alapmű≠ | Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123. DOI ↗ | O'Donoghue, C. (Ed.) (2014). Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling. Emerald. DOI ↗ |
| Alternatív nevek≠ | Probabilistic Microsimulation, Monte Carlo Microsimulation, Stochastic Micro-simulation, SMSM | Mikrosimülasyon, micro-simulation, policy microsimulation |
| Kapcsolódó≠ | 6 | 5 |
| Összefoglaló≠ | Stochastic Microsimulation tracks a large population of individual units — people, households, or firms — through time by applying random draws from empirically estimated probability distributions at each transition event. Unlike deterministic counterparts, every state change is decided by chance, preserving realistic heterogeneity and allowing rigorous uncertainty quantification across multiple simulation runs. | Microsimulation is a computational method that simulates policy effects by operating directly on a population of individual micro-units — households, firms, patients — and applying rules to each unit according to its own demographic, economic, and behavioural characteristics. Developed conceptually by Guy Orcutt in 1957, it has become the standard tool for evaluating tax reform, pension systems, and health policy before implementation. |
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