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| Elemzési forgatókönyv és „mi lenne, ha” szimuláció× | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION× | |
|---|---|---|
| Tudományterület≠ | Szimuláció | Döntéshozatal |
| Módszercsalád≠ | Process / pipeline | MCDM |
| Keletkezés éve≠ | 1950s (origins); widely adopted in management since 1970s | 1949 |
| Megalkotó≠ | Peter Schwartz (scenario planning formalization), Herman Kahn (RAND Corporation, 1950s–60s) | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. |
| Típus≠ | Structured analytical approach / simulation | Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation |
| Alapmű≠ | Goodwin, P. & Wright, G. (2014). Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118173671 | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗ |
| Alternatív nevek≠ | what-if analysis, what-if simulation, stress testing, scenario planning | — |
| Kapcsolódó≠ | 3 | 0 |
| Összefoglaló≠ | Scenario analysis is a structured analytical approach that systematically compares system outputs across different combinations of uncertain input values. When paired with a quantitative model, it becomes a simulation — capable of stress-testing assumptions and projecting the range of plausible outcomes. Formalised in strategic planning by Peter Schwartz and Herman Kahn from the 1950s onward, the method is widely used in policy evaluation, business forecasting, financial risk assessment, and scientific model exploration. | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result. |
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