Módszerek összehasonlítása

	Politikai forgatókönyv ügynök-alapú modellezése	Policy Scenario Analysis
Tudományterület	Szimuláció	Szimuláció
Módszercsalád	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Keletkezés éve	1990s–2000s	1967–1990s
Megalkotó	Axelrod, R. and colleagues in computational social science	Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. (seminal); adapted for policy by RAND Corporation and OECD
Típus	Simulation-based policy comparison	Qualitative-quantitative hybrid scenario method
Alapmű	Axelrod, R. (1997). The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration. Princeton University Press. ISBN: 9780691015675	Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146.
Alternatív nevek	Policy ABM, Policy Scenario ABM, Scenario-Based ABM, PS-ABM	PSA, Policy Scenarios, Policy Impact Scenario Analysis, Counterfactual Policy Analysis
Kapcsolódó	5	5
Összefoglaló	Policy Scenario Agent-Based Modeling (PS-ABM) is a simulation method that uses agent-based models to evaluate and compare multiple policy scenarios. Heterogeneous autonomous agents interact under different policy regimes, and emergent system-level outcomes are compared across scenarios to inform evidence-based policy decisions. It is widely used in public health, urban planning, economics, and social policy research.	Policy Scenario Analysis is a structured method for evaluating how different policy interventions perform across a range of plausible future states. By pairing specific policy levers with alternative scenarios, analysts can assess robustness, trade-offs, and unintended consequences of policy choices before implementation — making it a cornerstone of evidence-based policy design in fields from climate to public health.