Módszerek összehasonlítása

	ETS: Hiba, Trend, Szezonális Exponenciális Szintezés	Állapotterek (State Space) modell (Kalman-szűrő)
Tudományterület	Ökonometria	Ökonometria
Módszercsalád	Regression model	Regression model
Keletkezés éve	2008	1990
Megalkotó	Hyndman, Koehler, Ord & Snyder (state space framework)	Harvey; Durbin & Koopman (state space treatment); Kalman filter
Típus	Exponential smoothing state space model	State space time series model
Alapmű	Hyndman, R. J., Koehler, A. B., Ord, J. K. & Snyder, R. D. (2008). Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Space Approach. Springer.	Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press.
Alternatív nevek	exponential smoothing state space model, innovations state space model, Holt-Winters family, ETS — Hata/Trend/Mevsimsellik Üstel Düzleştirme	state space, Kalman filter, unobserved components model, Durum Uzayı Modeli (State Space / Kalman Filter)
Kapcsolódó	5	4
Összefoglaló	ETS is a comprehensive exponential smoothing framework that automatically selects additive or multiplicative combinations of the error (E), trend (T) and seasonal (S) components of a time series. Formalised as an innovations state space model by Hyndman, Koehler, Ord and Snyder in 2008, it unifies and generalises the Holt-Winters family of forecasting methods.	A state space model is a general time series framework that describes a series through unobserved (latent) state variables linked by a measurement equation and a transition equation, with the states estimated in real time by the Kalman filter. Developed in the state space tradition of Harvey (1990) and Durbin & Koopman (2012), it nests ARIMA and exponential smoothing as special cases.