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| Determinisztikus Szcenárióelemzés× | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION× | |
|---|---|---|
| Tudományterület≠ | Szimuláció | Döntéshozatal |
| Módszercsalád≠ | Process / pipeline | MCDM |
| Keletkezés éve≠ | 1967 | 1949 |
| Megalkotó≠ | Kahn, H., Wiener, A. J. (RAND Corporation / Hudson Institute) | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. |
| Típus≠ | Exploratory planning and decision-support framework | Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation |
| Alapmű≠ | Kahn, H., Wiener, A. J. (1967). The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. Macmillan, New York. ISBN: 9780025604407 | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗ |
| Alternatív nevek≠ | DSA, Fixed-Input Scenario Analysis, Classical Scenario Analysis, Deterministic What-If Analysis | — |
| Kapcsolódó≠ | 5 | 0 |
| Összefoglaló≠ | Deterministic Scenario Analysis (DSA) is a structured planning method in which analysts construct a finite set of internally consistent future scenarios, each defined by fixed, precisely specified parameter values rather than probability distributions. By running a model or calculation under each scenario's fixed inputs, decision-makers can map how outcomes diverge across plausible futures and stress-test strategies without requiring full probabilistic characterization of uncertainty. | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result. |
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