Módszerek összehasonlítása

	Technology Delphi	Horizon Scanning
Tudományterület	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
Módszercsalád	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Keletkezés éve	1975	2009
Megalkotó	Helmer & Dalkey (RAND); national applications by NISTEP (Japan) and Cuhls (Germany)	William J. Sutherland, Effie Amanatidou, and the foresight/scanning community
Típus	Iterative structured expert-survey process	Systematic search-and-detection process
Alapmű	Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. ISBN: 9780201042948	Sutherland, W. J., & Woodroof, H. J. (2009). The need for environmental horizon scanning. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 24(10), 523-527.
Alternatív nevek	Technology Delphi survey, Foresight Delphi, National Delphi forecast	Environmental scanning, Weak-signal detection, Emerging-issues analysis
Kapcsolódó	4	4
Összefoglaló	The technology Delphi is a large-scale, multi-round expert survey used to forecast the timing, importance, and feasibility of future technological developments. Built on the classic Delphi principles of anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback, and statistical aggregation, it elicits judgements from hundreds or thousands of experts on a structured list of technology statements and converges them, round by round, into a collective forecast that informs national and organisational science and technology priorities.	Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of information to detect early signs of potentially important developments—weak signals, emerging issues, and wild cards—before they become obvious or fully formed. By surveying a wide range of sources at the edge of current attention, it gives decision-makers advance warning of opportunities and threats and supplies the raw material for foresight, scenario building, and anticipatory policy.