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| Kohort-komponens alapú népességvetítés× | Az stabil népesség elmélete× | |
|---|---|---|
| Tudományterület | Demográfia | Demográfia |
| Módszercsalád≠ | Process / pipeline | Regression model |
| Keletkezés éve≠ | 2001 | 1972 |
| Megalkotó≠ | Preston, Heuveline & Guillot | Alfred J. Lotka; Ansley Coale |
| Típus≠ | Demographic projection pipeline | Mathematical demographic model |
| Alapmű≠ | Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 978-1-557-86451-2 | Coale, A. J. (1972). The Growth and Structure of Human Populations: A Mathematical Investigation. Princeton University Press. ISBN: 978-0-691-09357-4 |
| Alternatív nevek | Cohort-Component Method, Component Method of Population Projection, Age-Sex-Specific Population Projection, Kohort-Bileşen Projeksiyonu | Lotka-Coale Stable Population Model, Stable Age Distribution Theory, Stationary Population Theory, Kararlı Nüfus Teorisi |
| Kapcsolódó≠ | 3 | 2 |
| Összefoglaló≠ | Cohort-Component Projection is the standard demographic method for forecasting future population size and age-sex structure by explicitly tracking births, deaths, and migration for each age-sex cohort across discrete time steps. Systematically formalized in the textbook literature by Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (2001), the method builds on foundational actuarial and demographic work dating to the early twentieth century and remains the workhorse technique used by national statistical offices and international organizations worldwide. | Stable Population Theory is a mathematical framework in demography that describes the age structure and growth dynamics of a closed population subject to constant age-specific fertility and mortality schedules over a long period. Foundational work by Alfred J. Lotka established the core integral equation in the early twentieth century, and Ansley Coale's 1972 mathematical synthesis became the definitive theoretical reference, showing that any population exposed to invariant vital rates will converge to a unique stable age distribution growing at a fixed intrinsic rate of natural increase. |
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