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SARIMA (Seasonal ARIMA)×ईटीएस: त्रुटि, प्रवृत्ति, मौसमी घातीय स्मूथिंग×
क्षेत्रअर्थमितिअर्थमिति
परिवारRegression modelRegression model
उद्भव वर्ष20152008
प्रवर्तकBox & Jenkins (seasonal extension of ARIMA)Hyndman, Koehler, Ord & Snyder (state space framework)
प्रकारSeasonal time-series modelExponential smoothing state space model
मौलिक स्रोतBox, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M., Reinsel, G.C. & Ljung, G.M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021Hyndman, R. J., Koehler, A. B., Ord, J. K. & Snyder, R. D. (2008). Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Space Approach. Springer. DOI ↗
उपनामseasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, SARIMA — Mevsimsel ARIMAexponential smoothing state space model, innovations state space model, Holt-Winters family, ETS — Hata/Trend/Mevsimsellik Üstel Düzleştirme
संबंधित55
सारांशSARIMA is a seasonal extension of the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model that adds seasonal differencing and seasonal autoregressive and moving-average terms. Developed within the Box, Jenkins, Reinsel and Ljung framework (5th edition, 2015), it forecasts series whose pattern repeats on a yearly, monthly, or weekly period.ETS is a comprehensive exponential smoothing framework that automatically selects additive or multiplicative combinations of the error (E), trend (T) and seasonal (S) components of a time series. Formalised as an innovations state space model by Hyndman, Koehler, Ord and Snyder in 2008, it unifies and generalises the Holt-Winters family of forecasting methods.
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