השוואת שיטות

	מודל מרקוב-סוויצ'ינג מולטי-פרקטלי	מודל GARCH (חיזוי תנודתיות)
תחום	סדרות עתיות	אקונומטריקה
משפחה	Process / pipeline	Regression model
שנת המקור	2004	1986
הוגה השיטה	Luc E. Calvet	Tim Bollerslev
סוג	Stochastic volatility model	Conditional volatility model
מקור מכונן	Calvet, L. E., & Fisher, A. J. (2004). How to forecast long-run volatility: regime-switching and the estimation of multifractal processes. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2(1), 49–83.	Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307–327.
כינויים	MSM, Markov-switching multifractal volatility	GARCH, GARCH(1,1), conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli (Oynaklık Tahmini)
קשורות	3	5
תקציר	The Markov-Switching Multifractal (MSM) model is a flexible framework for capturing time-varying volatility and long-memory effects in financial time series. Developed by Calvet and Fisher (2004), it combines Markov chain theory with multifractal scaling principles to generate volatility that exhibits multiple frequency components, each switching between high and low regimes. This approach is particularly effective for modeling asset returns with realistic fat tails and clustered volatility.	The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986, models the time-varying conditional variance of a financial time series. It captures volatility clustering and the ARCH effect, and is the standard tool for estimating risk and volatility in return series.