Dossier de preuve de méthode

Interrupted Time Series in Crime Analysis

Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis evaluates whether a law, policy, or intervention changed the course of a crime series. By modeling the level and slope of crime before and after a dated 'interruption' — a gun-control law, a policing crackdown, a sentencing reform — it tests whether the series jumped or bent at that moment relative to its prior trend. Box and Tiao formalized intervention analysis in 1975, and McDowall, McCleary, and colleagues brought the method to criminology in their widely used 1980 monograph.

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Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Crime Policy Interventions

Dossier de méthode taxonomique · process-pipeline / criminology

McDowall, D., McCleary, R., Meidinger, E. E., & Hay, R. A. (1980). Interrupted Time Series Analysis. Sage Publications. · ISBN 9780803914933
Box, G. E. P., & Tiao, G. C. (1975). Intervention analysis with applications to economic and environmental problems. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70(349), 70–79. · DOI 10.1080/01621459.1975.10480264

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Méthodes apparentées

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Same method familyCrime Displacement and Diffusion Analysismachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Same method familyCrime Prediction Modelingmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Same method familyDeterrence Analysismachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.See alsoInterrupted Time Seriesmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.