Crime Prediction Modeling
Crime prediction modeling forecasts where and when crime is most likely to occur next, so that limited resources can be directed before incidents happen rather than after. It spans simple historical hot-spot extrapolation, statistical self-exciting point processes that treat crimes as triggering further crimes, and modern machine-learning models that blend spatial, temporal, and environmental features. The statistical foundation was sharpened by Mohler and colleagues' 2011 demonstration that earthquake-style self-exciting (Hawkes) point processes — in which each crime raises the short-term risk of nearby crimes — forecast urban crime more accurately than conventional hot-spot maps.
Lire la méthode complète
Connectez-vous avec un compte gratuit pour lire cette section.
Carte des méthodes
Le voisinage des méthodes apparentées — sélectionnez un nœud pour explorer.
Sources
- Mohler, G. O., Short, M. B., Brantingham, P. J., Schoenberg, F. P., & Tita, G. E. (2011). Self-exciting point process modeling of crime. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 106(493), 100–108. DOI: 10.1198/jasa.2011.ap09546 ↗
- Perry, W. L., McInnis, B., Price, C. C., Smith, S. C., & Hollywood, J. S. (2013). Predictive Policing: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations. RAND Corporation. ISBN: 9780833081483
Comment citer cette page
ScholarGate. (2026, June 22). Predictive Modeling of Crime Risk (Predictive Policing). ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/fr/criminology/crime-prediction-modeling
Quelle méthode ?
Placez cette méthode aux côtés de ses plus proches parentes et lisez-les côte à côte — la bibliothèque pose les ouvrages sur la table ; le choix vous revient.
- Crime Hot Spot AnalysisCriminology↔ comparer
- Crime MappingCriminology↔ comparer
- Near-Repeat AnalysisCriminology↔ comparer
- Risk Terrain Modeling (Criminology)Criminology↔ comparer
Référencée par
Méthodes similaires
Une erreur sur cette page ? Signalez-la ou proposez une correction →