Comparer des méthodes

	Weak Signal Analysis	Emerging Issues Analysis
Domaine	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
Famille	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Année d'origine	1975	2009
Auteur d'origine	H. Igor Ansoff	Graham T. T. Molitor; Hawai'i School / Millennium Project
Type	Early-warning pipeline for graduated response to faint strategic signals	Early-detection pipeline for issues on the S-curve of public attention
Source fondatrice	Ansoff, H. I. (1975). Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals. California Management Review, 18(2), 21-33.	Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (Eds.). (2009). Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0. The Millennium Project. ISBN: 9780981894119
Alias	Weak Signals, Ansoff Weak-Signal Analysis, Strategic Issue Early Warning, Graduated Response to Weak Signals	Emerging Issue Analysis, EIA, Issues Emergence Analysis, Weak Signal Scanning
Apparentées	4	3
Résumé	Weak signal analysis is H. Igor Ansoff's approach to managing strategic surprise by responding to faint, ambiguous early indicators of discontinuity long before they harden into unmistakable trends. Ansoff's 1975 argument was that organizations relying on strong, well-confirmed signals are condemned to react too late, because by the time a discontinuity is obvious the room to maneuver has collapsed; the alternative is to detect change while it is still a whisper and to graduate the response as the signal strengthens. The method rests on a ladder of knowledge states — from a vague sense that something is stirring to precise quantitative understanding — matched to a ladder of responses, from heightened awareness through increased strategic flexibility to direct action. As codified in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology, weak signal analysis turns scanning from passive observation into an early-warning system that trades the certainty of late information for the maneuvering room of early, tentative response.	Emerging Issues Analysis (EIA) is a horizon-scanning method, associated with Graham Molitor and the Hawai'i School and codified in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology, for detecting issues at the earliest, weakest-signal stage — long before they register as trends or reach public consciousness. Its organizing idea is that issues, like technologies, follow an S-curve of public attention: they begin in obscure, marginal sources, accelerate as advocates and specialists pick them up, and only later become widely recognized trends and finally mainstream concerns. The strategic value of catching an issue on the flat, early part of that curve is enormous, because that is when there is the most time and the most room to respond. EIA therefore deliberately scans the fringe — specialist literature, activist publications, patents, subcultures, marginal voices — to spot the small clouds on the horizon and position them on the issue lifecycle.