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Analyse Robuste d'Arbre d'Événements×Analyse de sensibilité avec analyse par arbre d'événements×
DomainePlans d'expériencesPlans d'expériences
FamilleProcess / pipelineProcess / pipeline
Année d'origine1960s (ETA); robust extensions ~1990s–2000sCombination formalized in risk and reliability engineering from the 1990s onward
Auteur d'origineH.E. Lambert / Nuclear industry (ETA); robust extensions developed through aerospace and nuclear risk researchSensitivity analysis: Saltelli et al. (1990s–2000s); Event tree analysis: Watson (1961, WASH-1400 formalization 1975)
TypeProbabilistic risk assessment with uncertainty propagationHybrid quantitative risk analysis method
Source fondatriceBedford, T., & Cooke, R. M. (2001). Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 9780521773201Saltelli, A., Ratto, M., Andres, T., Campolongo, F., Cariboni, J., Gatelli, D., Saisana, M., & Tarantola, S. (2008). Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer. Wiley. ISBN: 978-0470059975
AliasRobust ETA, uncertainty-aware event tree analysis, ETA with uncertainty quantification, robust probabilistic event treeSA-ETA, ETA sensitivity analysis, event tree sensitivity analysis, probabilistic sensitivity analysis with ETA
Apparentées66
RésuméRobust Event Tree Analysis (Robust ETA) extends classical event tree analysis by explicitly accounting for uncertainty in the probability estimates assigned to each branch. Rather than treating branch probabilities as precise point values, the robust approach represents them as intervals, probability distributions, or imprecise probabilities, then propagates that uncertainty through the tree to produce outcome frequency ranges instead of single numbers. This gives decision-makers a clearer picture of the confidence in risk estimates under realistic conditions of incomplete or conflicting information.Sensitivity analysis with event tree analysis (SA-ETA) is a quantitative risk assessment approach that systematically varies the input probabilities of an event tree model to determine which branch probabilities or initiating event frequencies most strongly influence the calculated probability of undesired outcomes. It extends classical event tree analysis by ranking the uncertainty contributions of individual inputs, thereby guiding risk-reduction efforts toward the parameters that matter most.
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ScholarGateComparer des méthodes: Robust event tree analysis · Sensitivity analysis with event tree analysis. Consulté le 2026-06-17 sur https://scholargate.app/fr/compare