Comparer des méthodes

	Systémique des Scénarios de Politiques	Dynamique stochastique des systèmes
Domaine	Simulation	Simulation
Famille	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Année d'origine	1960s–1990s	1980s–2000s
Auteur d'origine	Forrester, J. W. (system dynamics); scenario integration formalized by Sterman and others	Jay W. Forrester (base SD); stochastic extensions developed through 1980s–2000s by multiple researchers
Type	Simulation-based policy analysis	Continuous stochastic simulation
Source fondatrice	Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 9780072389159	Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159
Alias	PSSD, Policy SD Simulation, Scenario-Based System Dynamics, Policy Systems Modeling	SSD, stochastic stock-flow modelling, probabilistic system dynamics, random system dynamics
Apparentées	5	5
Résumé	Policy Scenario System Dynamics combines system dynamics modeling with structured scenario analysis to evaluate how different policy interventions affect complex, feedback-driven systems over time. By running multiple policy scenarios through a calibrated stock-and-flow model, analysts can compare long-run outcomes, identify leverage points, and anticipate unintended consequences before real-world implementation.	Stochastic System Dynamics (SSD) extends conventional system dynamics by replacing fixed parameter values and deterministic flow equations with probability distributions and random draws. Running many replications of the stock-flow model yields probabilistic trajectories — confidence bands rather than single lines — enabling rigorous uncertainty quantification and risk analysis in complex feedback systems such as epidemic models, supply chains, and energy policy scenarios.