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| Machine Learning Conflict Prediction× | Régression logistique× | |
|---|---|---|
| Domaine≠ | International Relations | Statistiques de recherche |
| Famille≠ | Machine learning | Process / pipeline |
| Année d'origine≠ | 2016 | 1958 |
| Auteur d'origine≠ | Predictive conflict research (e.g., Muchlinski, Siroky, He & Kocher) | David Roxbee Cox |
| Type≠ | Supervised machine-learning prediction of conflict | Method |
| Source fondatrice≠ | Muchlinski, D., Siroky, D., He, J., & Kocher, M. (2016). Comparing random forest with logistic regression for predicting class-imbalanced civil war onset data. Political Analysis, 24(1), 87–103. DOI ↗ | Cox, D. R. (1958). The regression analysis of binary sequences. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 20(2), 215–242. DOI ↗ |
| Alias≠ | ML Conflict Prediction, Random Forest Civil War Prediction, Algorithmic Conflict Prediction, Supervised Learning for Conflict Onset | logit model, binomial logistic regression, LR |
| Apparentées | 3 | 3 |
| Résumé≠ | Machine learning conflict prediction uses flexible supervised algorithms — random forests, gradient boosting, neural networks, regularized regression — to forecast the onset of armed conflict from large sets of features, prioritizing out-of-sample predictive accuracy over coefficient interpretation. Muchlinski, Siroky, He, and Kocher (2016) showed that random forests substantially outperform logistic regression at predicting class-imbalanced civil-war onset, catalyzing a shift in conflict research toward algorithmic prediction, rigorous out-of-sample validation, and the recognition that explanation and prediction are distinct goals. | Logistic regression is a statistical method for modeling the probability of a binary outcome (disease present/absent, success/failure) as a function of continuous and categorical predictors. Developed by David Roxbee Cox (1958), it solves the problem of predicting categorical outcomes by applying a logistic transformation to constrain predictions to the [0,1] probability interval, enabling accurate risk stratification, diagnostic prediction, and causal inference in epidemiology, medicine, and social science. |
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