Comparer des méthodes

	Gravity Model of Tourist Flows	Tourism Almost Ideal Demand System
Domaine	Tourism Hospitality	Tourism Hospitality
Famille	Regression model	Regression model
Année d'origine	2014	1980
Auteur d'origine	Clive Morley; Jaume Rossello; Maria Santana-Gallego	Angus Deaton & John Muellbauer; Gang Li, Haiyan Song & Stephen F. Witt (tourism application)
Type	Spatial-interaction / bilateral-flow regression model	System-of-equations consumer demand model
Source fondatrice	Morley, C., Rossello, J., & Santana-Gallego, M. (2014). Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use. Annals of Tourism Research, 48, 1-10.	Deaton, A., & Muellbauer, J. (1980). An Almost Ideal Demand System. American Economic Review, 70(3), 312-326.
Alias	Tourism Gravity Equation, Bilateral Tourist Flow Model, Gravity Model of Tourism Demand, Spatial Interaction Model of Tourism	Tourism AIDS Model, LAIDS Tourism Demand, Tourism Expenditure Allocation Model, System-of-Equations Tourism Demand
Apparentées	4	4
Résumé	The gravity model of tourist flows explains travel between an origin and a destination by analogy to Newton's law of gravitation: bilateral flows increase with the economic 'mass' of both the origin and the destination and decrease with the distance and cost of travel between them. Borrowed from international trade, the model has become a standard tool for analyzing the structural determinants of international tourism, capturing how population, income, distance, common language, shared borders, and historical or cultural ties shape who travels where. Clive Morley, Jaume Rossello, and Maria Santana-Gallego's 2014 Annals of Tourism Research paper grounded the tourism gravity equation in individual utility theory, while the broader trade literature — notably Anderson and van Wincoop's 'multilateral resistance' insight — showed how to specify and estimate it without bias.	The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), introduced by Angus Deaton and John Muellbauer in 1980, is a system of demand equations grounded in consumer theory that models how a budget is allocated across competing goods through their expenditure shares. Applied to tourism, AIDS treats a tourist's total travel budget as allocated across competing destinations (or expenditure categories), with each destination's budget share depending on relative prices and real total expenditure. Because it estimates all share equations jointly and can impose the restrictions implied by economic theory — adding-up, homogeneity, and symmetry — the model yields a consistent set of income (expenditure) and own- and cross-price elasticities, including how destinations substitute for one another. Gang Li, Haiyan Song, and Stephen Witt's dynamic linear AIDS application demonstrated its value for both explaining and forecasting tourism demand.