Comparer des méthodes

	Desistance Analysis	Group-Based Trajectory Model
Domaine	Criminology	Criminology
Famille	Regression model	Regression model
Année d'origine	2001	1993
Auteur d'origine	John H. Laub & Robert J. Sampson; Shawn D. Bushway et al.	Daniel S. Nagin & Kenneth C. Land
Type	Time-to-event and trajectory modeling of ceasing offending	Finite-mixture model of longitudinal developmental trajectories
Source fondatrice	Laub, J. H., & Sampson, R. J. (2001). Understanding desistance from crime. Crime and Justice, 28, 1–69.	Nagin, D. S., & Land, K. C. (1993). Age, criminal careers, and population heterogeneity: Specification and estimation of a nonparametric, mixed Poisson model. Criminology, 31(3), 327–362.
Alias	Desistance Modeling, Time-to-Desistance Analysis, Cessation-of-Offending Analysis, Criminal Career Termination Analysis	GBTM, Group-Based Modeling of Development, Nagin Trajectory Model, Semiparametric Group-Based Modeling
Apparentées	4	4
Résumé	Desistance analysis models the process by which offenders cease offending — estimating the timing of the last offense, the hazard of termination, and the decline of offending toward zero. Sharpened by Laub and Sampson and by Bushway and colleagues around 2001, it treats desistance not as a single event but as a process, and confronts the deep measurement problem of telling true termination apart from a long gap or a gradual slowing of crime.	Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) is a finite-mixture method that identifies clusters of individuals who follow similar developmental paths of a behavior — most famously offending — over age or time. Introduced to criminology by Daniel Nagin and Kenneth Land in 1993, it replaces the assumption of a single average trajectory with a small number of distinct latent groups, each described by its own polynomial curve and its share of the population.