Land-Use Change Modeling

Land-use change modeling is the umbrella family of methods that simulate how the land surface is converted between uses — forest to farmland, farmland to city — by combining where change is likely with how much change is demanded. A typical model statistically relates observed change to spatial drivers such as slope, roads, and population, sets future demand for each land-use class from scenarios, and then allocates that demand across space to the most suitable cells, iterating until supply meets demand. The CLUE-S model of Verburg and colleagues, alongside the Land Change Modeler and SLEUTH, exemplifies this demand-plus-allocation architecture that underpins much of land-change science.