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| Rakenteellisen muutoksen liukuvan keskiarvon malli× | Liukuvan keskiarvon (MA) malli× | |
|---|---|---|
| Tieteenala | Ekonometria | Ekonometria |
| Menetelmäperhe | Regression model | Regression model |
| Syntyvuosi≠ | 1989–1992 | 1970 |
| Kehittäjä≠ | Perron (1989); Zivot & Andrews (1992) | Box and Jenkins |
| Tyyppi≠ | Time series model with structural change | Linear time series model |
| Alkuperäislähde≠ | Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 1361–1401. DOI ↗ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744 |
| Rinnakkaisnimet | MA model with structural change, broken MA model, MA with regime shift, structural break moving average | MA model, MA(q) process, moving-average process, Box-Jenkins MA |
| Liittyvät | 5 | 5 |
| Tiivistelmä≠ | A Moving Average (MA) time series model augmented to accommodate one or more structural breaks — abrupt shifts in the mean, variance, or MA coefficients occurring at known or unknown break dates. Ignoring structural breaks in an MA process inflates forecast errors and distorts inference on the error dynamics. | The Moving Average model of order q — written MA(q) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear combination of the current and past random shocks (innovations). Unlike the AR model which uses lagged values of the series itself, the MA model uses lagged error terms, making it well-suited for capturing short-lived disturbances that dissipate over q periods. |
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