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مدل‌سازی گذار حالت احتمالی در سطح فردی با شبیه‌سازی خرد تصادفی×شبیه‌سازی رویداد گسسته تصادفی×
حوزهشبیه‌سازیشبیه‌سازی
خانوادهProcess / pipelineProcess / pipeline
سال پیدایش19571960s–1970s
پدیدآورGuy H. OrcuttBanks, Carson, Nelson, Nicol; Law, A. M.
نوعStochastic individual-level simulationStochastic simulation model
منبع بنیادینOrcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123. DOI ↗Banks, J., Carson, J. S., Nelson, B. L., & Nicol, D. M. (2010). Discrete-Event System Simulation (5th ed.). Prentice Hall. ISBN: 9780136062127
نام‌های دیگرProbabilistic Microsimulation, Monte Carlo Microsimulation, Stochastic Micro-simulation, SMSMStochastic DES, SDES, Probabilistic DES, Monte Carlo DES
مرتبط66
خلاصهStochastic Microsimulation tracks a large population of individual units — people, households, or firms — through time by applying random draws from empirically estimated probability distributions at each transition event. Unlike deterministic counterparts, every state change is decided by chance, preserving realistic heterogeneity and allowing rigorous uncertainty quantification across multiple simulation runs.Stochastic Discrete-Event Simulation (Stochastic DES) models complex systems by advancing simulated time from one discrete event to the next, drawing event durations and inter-arrival times from fitted probability distributions. It is the standard technique for analyzing queues, manufacturing lines, healthcare pathways, and logistics networks under uncertainty, producing output statistics with confidence intervals.
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ScholarGateمقایسهٔ روش‌ها: Stochastic Microsimulation · Stochastic Discrete-Event Simulation. بازیابی‌شده در 2026-06-17 از https://scholargate.app/fa/compare