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مدل SEIR×عدد بازتولید (R0 و Rt)×معادلات دیفرانسیل تصادفی (SDEs)×
حوزهاپیدمیولوژیاپیدمیولوژیشبیه‌سازی
خانوادهRegression modelRegression modelProcess / pipeline
سال پیدایش199119901944 (theory); 1992 (numerical framework)
پدیدآورKermack & McKendrick; Anderson & MayDiekmann, Heesterbeek & MetzKiyosi Itô (Itô calculus, 1944); Peter Kloeden & Eckhard Platen (numerical methods, 1992)
نوعDeterministic compartmental ODE modelThreshold parameter for epidemic spreadContinuous-time stochastic process model
منبع بنیادینAnderson, R. M., & May, R. M. (1991). Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0-19-854040-3Diekmann, O., Heesterbeek, J. A. P., & Metz, J. A. J. (1990). On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 28(4), 365–382. link ↗Øksendal, B. (2003). Stochastic Differential Equations: An Introduction with Applications (6th ed.). Springer. DOI ↗
نام‌های دیگرSusceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered Model, SEIR Compartmental Model, Latent Period Epidemic Model, SEIR Bulaşıcı Hastalık ModeliBasic Reproduction Ratio, Effective Reproduction Number, Net Reproduction Number, Temel Üreme SayısıSDE, Itô equations, Stokastik Diferansiyel Denklemler (SDE)
مرتبط324
خلاصهThe SEIR model is a deterministic compartmental model that partitions a closed population into four epidemiological states: Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infectious (I), and Recovered (R). It extends the classic SIR framework by explicitly incorporating a latent period during which individuals have been infected but are not yet infectious. The model was systematically formalized by Anderson and May (1991) and remains a cornerstone of mathematical epidemiology for diseases with non-negligible incubation periods.The basic reproduction number R0 is the expected number of secondary infections produced by a single infectious individual introduced into a fully susceptible population. Formally defined and computationally grounded by Diekmann, Heesterbeek, and Metz in 1990 using the next-generation matrix approach, R0 serves as the central threshold parameter in mathematical epidemiology: if R0 > 1, an epidemic can establish itself; if R0 < 1, the outbreak dies out. The effective reproduction number Rt extends this to partially immune or partially susceptible populations over time.Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are differential equation models that combine a deterministic drift term — governing the average tendency of a system — with a stochastic diffusion term driven by a Wiener process (Brownian motion). Pioneered through Itô calculus by Kiyosi Itô in 1944 and given a comprehensive numerical treatment by Kloeden and Platen in 1992, SDEs are the standard modelling language for continuous-time systems subject to random noise, including financial asset prices, population dynamics, and physical processes.
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ScholarGateمقایسهٔ روش‌ها: SEIR Model · Reproduction Number · Stochastic Differential Equations. بازیابی‌شده در 2026-06-19 از https://scholargate.app/fa/compare