مقایسهٔ روش‌ها

	مدل GARCH غیرخطی	مدل آریما (میانگین متحرک یکپارچه خودرگرسیو)
حوزه	اقتصادسنجی	اقتصادسنجی
خانواده	Regression model	Regression model
سال پیدایش	1991-1993	1970
پدیدآور	Glosten, Jagannathan & Runkle; Nelson (1991) for EGARCH	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins
نوع	Volatility model	Time series forecasting model
منبع بنیادین	Glosten, L. R., Jagannathan, R., & Runkle, D. E. (1993). On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks. Journal of Finance, 48(5), 1779-1801.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.
نام‌های دیگر	NL-GARCH, asymmetric GARCH, GJR-GARCH, nonlinear volatility model	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)
مرتبط	6	6
خلاصه	The Nonlinear GARCH model extends the standard GARCH framework to capture asymmetric and nonlinear responses of conditional volatility to past shocks. It allows negative returns (bad news) to amplify volatility more than positive returns of equal magnitude, a phenomenon known as the leverage effect, which is empirically pervasive in financial markets.	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.