مقایسهٔ روش‌ها

	مجموعه اطمینان مدل (MCS)	آزمون قدرت پیش‌بینی شرطی جاکومینی-وایت
حوزه	اقتصادسنجی	اقتصادسنجی
خانواده	Hypothesis test	Hypothesis test
سال پیدایش	2011	2006
پدیدآور	Hansen, Lunde & Nason	Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White
نوع	Sequential hypothesis testing procedure for model comparison	Non-nested forecast comparison test
منبع بنیادین	Hansen, P. R., Lunde, A., & Nason, J. M. (2011). The model confidence set. Econometrica, 79(2), 453–497.	Giacomini, R., & White, H. (2006). Tests of conditional predictive ability. Econometrica, 74(6), 1545–1578.
نام‌های دیگر	MCS Procedure, Superior Set of Models, Model Selection Confidence Set, Model Güven Kümesi	GW Test, Conditional Predictive Ability Test, Giacomini-White CPA Test, Koşullu Tahmin Yeteneği Testi
مرتبط	3	3
خلاصه	The Model Confidence Set (MCS) is a sequential hypothesis-testing procedure introduced by Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2011) that identifies the smallest collection of forecasting or predictive models statistically indistinguishable from the best-performing model at a given confidence level. Instead of selecting a single winner, MCS returns a set of superior models, making it especially valuable in econometric forecast comparisons where the true best model is unknown.	The Giacomini-White (GW) test, introduced by Raffaella Giacomini and Halbert White in 2006, evaluates whether two competing forecasting methods have equal conditional predictive ability given information available at the time of forecast. Unlike unconditional tests such as the Diebold-Mariano test, it asks whether one method systematically outperforms the other in specific economic or market conditions, making it especially useful for practitioners who need state-dependent forecast comparisons.