مقایسهٔ روش‌ها

	مدل آریما (میانگین متحرک یکپارچه خودرگرسیو)	پیش‌بینی انطباقی برای پیش‌بینی سری‌های زمانی	پچ‌تی‌اس‌تی
حوزه	اقتصادسنجی	اقتصادسنجی	یادگیری عمیق
خانواده	Regression model	Regression model	Machine learning
سال پیدایش	2015	2021	2023
پدیدآور	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Angelopoulos & Bates (tutorial); Xu & Xie (time-series EnbPI)	Nie, Y. et al.
نوع	Univariate time-series model	Distribution-free prediction interval wrapper	Transformer for time series forecasting
منبع بنیادین	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Angelopoulos, A. N. & Bates, S. (2023). Conformal Prediction: A Gentle Introduction. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 16(4), 494-591.	Nie, Y., Nguyen, N. H., Sinthong, P. & Kalagnanam, J. (2023). A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers. ICLR.
نام‌های دیگر	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	conformal prediction, distribution-free prediction intervals, EnbPI, Konformal Tahmin (Conformal Prediction — Zaman Serisi)	PatchTST — Yama Tabanlı Zaman Serisi Transformer, patch-based time series transformer, channel-independent transformer
مرتبط	5	4	3
خلاصه	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	Conformal prediction is a distribution-free wrapper that turns any point forecaster — ARIMA, a neural network, or a machine-learning model — into valid prediction intervals using only its residuals. The time-series form was popularised by Xu & Xie (2021) and the modern tutorial treatment by Angelopoulos & Bates (2023).	PatchTST is a patch-based Transformer architecture for time series forecasting, introduced by Nie and colleagues in 2023, that cuts each series into overlapping patches treated as tokens and processes channels independently. It balances computational efficiency with strong accuracy on long-horizon forecasting.