Bayesian Power Analysis
Bayesian power analysis — also called assurance — is a sample size determination method that replaces the frequentist notion of power with a probability-weighted average over a prior distribution on the effect size. First formalised by Spiegelhalter and Freedman (1986) and further developed by O'Hagan, Stevens and Campbell (2005), it answers the question: given our current uncertainty about the true effect, what sample size gives us a high overall probability of obtaining a statistically significant result?
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- O'Hagan, A., Stevens, J.W. & Campbell, M.J. (2005). Assurance in Clinical Trial Design. Pharmaceutical Statistics, 4(3), 187–201. · DOI 10.1002/pst.175
- Spiegelhalter, D.J. & Freedman, L.S. (1986). A Predictive Approach to Selecting the Size of a Clinical Trial, Based on Subjective Clinical Opinion. Statistics in Medicine, 5(1), 1–13. · DOI 10.1002/sim.4780050103
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