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Modelo TGARCH con Parámetros Variables en el Tiempo (TVP-TGARCH)×Modelo de espacio de estados (Filtro de Kalman)×
CampoEconometríaEconometría
FamiliaRegression modelRegression model
Año de origen1990s–2000s1990
Autor originalExtension combining Zakoïan (1994) TGARCH and time-varying parameter methodsHarvey; Durbin & Koopman (state space treatment); Kalman filter
TipoVolatility model with asymmetry and parameter evolutionState space time series model
Fuente seminalZakoïan, J.-M. (1994). Threshold heteroskedastic models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18(5), 931–955. DOI ↗Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press. DOI ↗
AliasTVP-TGARCH, time-varying TGARCH, threshold GARCH with time-varying parameters, TVP Threshold GARCHstate space, Kalman filter, unobserved components model, Durum Uzayı Modeli (State Space / Kalman Filter)
Relacionados44
ResumenThe TVP-TGARCH model extends Threshold GARCH by allowing its volatility parameters to evolve over time via a state-space representation. It captures both the leverage effect — that negative return shocks increase volatility more than positive ones — and structural change in that asymmetry, making it well-suited for long financial time series subject to regime shifts.A state space model is a general time series framework that describes a series through unobserved (latent) state variables linked by a measurement equation and a transition equation, with the states estimated in real time by the Kalman filter. Developed in the state space tradition of Harvey (1990) and Durbin & Koopman (2012), it nests ARIMA and exponential smoothing as special cases.
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ScholarGateComparar métodos: Time-varying parameter TGARCH model · State Space Model. Recuperado el 2026-06-17 de https://scholargate.app/es/compare