Regression modelStructural Models
Merton Default Model
The Merton model (1974) is a structural approach to credit risk in which a firm defaults when its asset value falls below liabilities at maturity. Equity is viewed as a call option on firm value, and debt is an implicit short put position. The model links company fundamentals (asset volatility) to default probability and is foundational for modern credit risk measurement.
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Sources
- Merton, R. C. (1974). On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance, 29(2), 449-470. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1974.tb03058.x ↗
- Vasicek, O. (2002). The distribution of losses on loan portfolios. Journal of Risk, 5(2), 15-25. link ↗