Robust Event Tree Analysis — Uncertainty-Aware Risk Propagation

Robust Event Tree Analysis (Robust ETA) extends classical event tree analysis by explicitly accounting for uncertainty in the probability estimates assigned to each branch. Rather than treating branch probabilities as precise point values, the robust approach represents them as intervals, probability distributions, or imprecise probabilities, then propagates that uncertainty through the tree to produce outcome frequency ranges instead of single numbers. This gives decision-makers a clearer picture of the confidence in risk estimates under realistic conditions of incomplete or conflicting information.