Method evidence record

Pesaran-Timmermann Test

Introduced by Pesaran and Timmermann (1992), the PT test is a nonparametric procedure that evaluates whether a forecasting model correctly predicts the direction (sign) of a target variable more often than would be expected by chance. It is widely used in financial econometrics and macroeconomic forecasting to assess the practical utility of a model beyond simple error metrics, particularly when the economic cost of getting the direction wrong is high.

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Pesaran-Timmermann Test of Directional Predictive Accuracy

Taxonomic method record · hypothesis-test / econometrics

Pesaran, M. H., & Timmermann, A. (1992). A simple nonparametric test of predictive performance. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(4), 461–465. · DOI 10.1080/07350015.1992.10509922

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Taxonomic bucketDiebold-Mariano Testmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Same method familyRuns Testmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Same method familySign Testmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.