Method evidence record

Lee-Carter Model

The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections.

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Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting Model

Taxonomic method record · regression-model / demography

Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671. · DOI 10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265

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Same method familyARIMAmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Used in the same domainLife Tablemachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.