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Kelly Criterion/Evidence
Method evidence record

Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion (1956) is a formula for optimal bet sizing that maximizes the long-run logarithmic growth of wealth. It specifies the optimal fraction of capital to risk on each trade based on win probability and payoff ratio. The criterion has become foundational in quantitative trading, portfolio management, and behavioral economics.

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Kelly Criterion for Optimal Position Sizing
Taxonomic method record · regression-model / quantitative-finance
  • Kelly, J. L. (1956). A new interpretation of information rate. Bell System Technical Journal, 35(4), 917-926. · DOI 10.1002/j.1538-7305.1956.tb03809.x
  • Thorp, E. O. (2017). A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street. Random House. · URL
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Related methods

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Same method familyRisk-Neutral Valuationmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.

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Sources

2 recorded citations, copied from the method source record.

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