Interrupted Time Series in Crime Analysis
Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis evaluates whether a law, policy, or intervention changed the course of a crime series. By modeling the level and slope of crime before and after a dated 'interruption' — a gun-control law, a policing crackdown, a sentencing reform — it tests whether the series jumped or bent at that moment relative to its prior trend. Box and Tiao formalized intervention analysis in 1975, and McDowall, McCleary, and colleagues brought the method to criminology in their widely used 1980 monograph.
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Sources
- McDowall, D., McCleary, R., Meidinger, E. E., & Hay, R. A. (1980). Interrupted Time Series Analysis. Sage Publications. ISBN: 9780803914933
- Box, G. E. P., & Tiao, G. C. (1975). Intervention analysis with applications to economic and environmental problems. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70(349), 70–79. DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1975.10480264 ↗
How to cite this page
ScholarGate. (2026, June 22). Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Crime Policy Interventions. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/en/criminology/interrupted-time-series-crime
Which method?
Set this method beside its closest kin and read them side by side — the library lays the books on the table; the choice is yours.
- Crime Displacement and Diffusion AnalysisCriminology↔ compare
- Crime Prediction ModelingCriminology↔ compare
- Deterrence AnalysisCriminology↔ compare
- Interrupted Time SeriesCausal inference↔ compare