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| Interrupted Time Series in Crime Analysis× | Deterrence Analysis× | |
|---|---|---|
| Field | Criminology | Criminology |
| Family | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| Year of origin≠ | 1980 | 1968 |
| Originator≠ | George E. P. Box & George C. Tiao (intervention analysis); David McDowall, Richard McCleary, and colleagues (criminological text) | Cesare Beccaria & Jeremy Bentham (classical); Gary Becker & Daniel Nagin (modern) |
| Type≠ | Quasi-experimental evaluation of a policy effect on a time series | Theory and empirical analysis of how punishment deters offending |
| Seminal source≠ | McDowall, D., McCleary, R., Meidinger, E. E., & Hay, R. A. (1980). Interrupted Time Series Analysis. Sage Publications. ISBN: 9780803914933 | Nagin, D. S. (2013). Deterrence in the twenty-first century: A review of the evidence. Crime and Justice, 42(1), 199–263. DOI ↗ |
| Aliases | Crime Intervention Analysis, ITS Crime Evaluation, Quasi-Experimental Time Series for Crime, Pre-Post Crime Trend Analysis | Deterrence Theory, Certainty-Severity-Celerity Analysis, Perceptual Deterrence Analysis, Focused Deterrence Analysis |
| Related | 4 | 4 |
| Summary≠ | Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis evaluates whether a law, policy, or intervention changed the course of a crime series. By modeling the level and slope of crime before and after a dated 'interruption' — a gun-control law, a policing crackdown, a sentencing reform — it tests whether the series jumped or bent at that moment relative to its prior trend. Box and Tiao formalized intervention analysis in 1975, and McDowall, McCleary, and colleagues brought the method to criminology in their widely used 1980 monograph. | Deterrence analysis studies how the threat and imposition of legal punishment discourage crime. Rooted in classical criminology and formalized in Gary Becker's economic model, it distinguishes the certainty, severity, and celerity of punishment, separates perceived from objective sanction risk, and uses quasi-experimental and perceptual evidence — synthesized by Daniel Nagin — to test how much, and through what channels, punishment actually deters. |
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